Berkeley Wildfire Evacuation Simulation
Project Overview
This simulation project models wildfire evacuation scenarios in Berkeley, integrating traffic simulation strategies to optimize emergency evacuation procedures. The research addresses the critical need for evacuation planning in fire-prone urban-wildland interface areas, particularly in hilly terrain with limited egress routes.
Research Motivation
Berkeley’s hillside neighborhoods face significant evacuation challenges:
- Narrow, winding roads with limited capacity
- Dense vegetation and high fire hazard
- Population density and limited evacuation routes
- Historical precedents of devastating wildfires
- Increasing wildfire risk due to climate change
Methodology
The research employs a comprehensive simulation approach:
- Agent-based modeling of evacuee behavior
- Detailed road network modeling including constraints
- Integration of fire spread models to create realistic scenarios
- Traffic flow optimization through various evacuation strategies
- Sensitivity analysis for different population densities and conditions
Key Findings
Initial simulation results reveal several critical insights:
- Phased evacuations can reduce congestion by up to 45% compared to simultaneous evacuation
- Contraflow implementation on major arteries improves evacuation times by 30%
- Strategic placement of traffic control personnel can significantly reduce bottlenecks
- Community-based evacuation centers can reduce evacuation distances for vulnerable populations
- Pre-positioning emergency vehicles affects evacuation efficiency
Evacuation Strategies Evaluated
The project evaluates multiple evacuation strategies:
- Simultaneous full evacuation
- Phased evacuation by zones
- Shelter-in-place for designated areas
- Contraflow implementation
- Use of alternative evacuation routes
- Specialized transportation for vulnerable populations
Applications
This research has practical applications for:
- Emergency management agencies developing evacuation plans
- City planners designing more resilient neighborhoods
- Transportation departments allocating resources during emergencies
- Community organizations developing neighborhood response plans
- Policy makers establishing evacuation protocols
Future Work
Next steps for this research include:
- Integration with real-time traffic monitoring systems
- Development of a decision support tool for emergency managers
- Expanding the model to include pedestrian evacuation
- Incorporating more complex behavioral models for evacuee decision-making
- Testing the model in other wildfire-prone urban areas